About a year ago, I became a technological determinist.
It’s mostly about ad tech, but I think it applies in many cases to technology in general.
I now believe that if a technology exists to accomplish something at a potentially lower cost, it will be widely adopted. This is true whether or not a) the technology is better than currently available alternatives (in fact, it can be worse) or b) it is “ready for prime time” or badly flawed.
The widespread adoption then provides the dollars and incentives to make the flawed technology better until it’s eventually as good as it should be.
I no longer ask “is the technology today good?” or “does it solve a real problem?” or even “but can it make money?”
Instead, I look at adoption. If enough customers begin moving in a given direction the tidal wave will almost always drag the technology forward in its wake.
It gets good because it has to get good.