“We’re about to make TV perform like the web”.

The web has not been a roaring success for brand marketers.

Promising to make TV as effective as the web for brands is like saying to a NASCAR driver “see that busted-up tricycle over there? I can make your car perform like that.”

As Dave Morgan of Simulmedia – one of the smartest guys in digital and now one of the smartest guys in TV – said in Ad Age:

“The book on web banners capturing a significant share of brand ad spend is just about closed. This year, according to IPG’s Magna Global, TV advertising revenue in the U.S. will grow faster than web display, on a base that’s about five times bigger.“

Why Is TV Growing While Banner Ads Flatline?

CMOs have made courageous investments in digital – even in tough times, and even when the results from their digital efforts have been vanishingly small.

Every single marketer I know is passionate about digital. Yet TV remains the primary engine of brand marketing.

In my opinion, this is true because:

1. To date, only TV delivers the scale that brand marketers require.

2. Consumer brands tried so hard to “be digital” that they forgot the fundamentals.

Brand marketers who sell through mass retail must drive fast turns at the shelf, or risk losing their biggest outlet for distribution. This makes the scalable reach that TV delivers as essential as oxygen. By contrast, too much ad tech has been anti-scale.

Digital’s Promise of Smallness

Digital promises smallness: “the right ad to the right person at the right moment”. This is in direct conflict with what big brands need: large numbers of new buyers entering the category, becoming aware of the brand, or switching brands.

Big CPG companies have billions of dollars in sales. At that size, efficiency – getting more for the brand’s money – is good. But smallness – many efforts, each too microscopic to move the needle – is not.

The Smallness Trap

Where the storyboard was the primary instrument of analog, the spreadsheet became the primary instrument of digital.

Because digital is so measurable, brands enthusiastically adopted Direct Response metrics. We measured events (CTRs and conversions), ignoring the reality that brand preference is built over time.

We fell into what I call “the smallness trap“.

Our focus shifted from consumers to spreadsheets. We developed disdain for big ideas in favor of optimizing to metrics, like the click through rate, that few still believe in.

As Peter Drucker admonished: “There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all.”

Keeping digital in perpetual test-and-learn mode was fun. The stakes never got too high. We could always ace our KPIs, because they were always fuzzy measures. The latest buzzword, “engagement”, is wonderfully plastic: since it has no real definition, it can be whatever we need it to be.

But when TV collides with digital, there will be a lot more at stake. We can’t wait on the sidelines and see how things shake out. And it’s unfair to ask agencies to take the lead, because they take their signals from us.

If we want our future TV performance to be better than our banner ad performance, now is the time to step up and course-correct. If we don’t, the “smallness trap” will continue taking us in the wrong direction.

Five Imperatives For Brands As Digital And TV Collide

1. Return to fundamental brand metrics. Starting yesterday. DR metrics demand DR creative. This does not build brands, and fails to leverage what makes TV great: sight, sound and motion. We need to let TV be TV. Let’s unshackle digital advertising and let it get creative. Let’s tell stories. Let’s entertain. In fact, let’s demand nothing less.

2. Insist on meaningful scale. Let’s escape “the smallness trap”. Let’s abandon the fantasy that we can squeeze all our darts into the dead center of the tightest ring of the bulls-eye. It’s a big board; we can (and should) score points all over it.

3. Use Big Data the right way. Data, by itself, is a powerful but neutral tool. It’s like electricity. Used correctly, it can provide illumination; used incorrectly, it can kill you. Our algorithms are only as smart as our inputs. Brand marketers know awareness and scale are critically important, and that brands are built over time. Our algorithms and data scientists need to know this, too. Let’s use Big Data and AI to optimize to brand metrics, and to find the right kind of media efficiencies. There is enormous opportunity here, if we do it right.

4. Have a marketing strategy, not a digital strategy. “We’ll do this in paid, we’ll do that in owned, and we’ll do another thing in earned” is not a strategy; it’s a collection of tactics. Let’s go back to fundamentals, and start with the consumer. A clear strategy makes choosing the right tactics easy.

5. Start from opportunity, not fear. TV is incredibly powerful, and now has the potential to be even better and smarter. TV is an entertainment medium. What new capabilities do we have to make advertising more fun and engaging?

The changes coming to TV are a fresh opportunity to get digital right for our brands, and to reshape our marketing organizations for the next century.

Let’s get to it.

Originally published at MobileFOMO

Who will be the big mobile marketers? I predict among the biggest will be consumer packaged goods companies — and that these dollars will be spent not on banner ads, but on shopper marketing.

A bellwether is Mondelez (formed when Kraft split in two). Mondelez has dedicated 10% of its budget to “mobile-first”. It’s not clear those dollars will be spent on shopper marketing, but I’m betting that as the company finds its way they will be.

There are big budgets in play: P&G alone spends $500 million a year in shopper marketing. But, we’re not quite where we need to be yet. More about that in a minute.

What Is Shopper Marketing, Anyway?

Wikipedia defines shopper marketing as “understanding how one’s target consumers behave as shoppers, in different channels and formats, and leveraging this intelligence to the benefit of all stakeholders, defined as brands, consumers, retailers and shoppers.”

While its reach is broader than just in-store, the opportunities there alone are worth significant exploration. Brand choices can be influenced when the shopper enters the store, or at the shelf. People are in supermarkets are there to solve problems: “what’s for dinner?”, “how can I save some time or money?”, “how can I serve something different that my kids will actually eat?”

Mobile can help solve some of those problems, and the brands and retailers that offer the easiest-to-use solutions will win. (Pro tip: QR codes have been a bomb so far. We should take the hint and give up.)

Why Hasn’t Mobile Shopper Marketing Happened Yet? We’re Still A Bit Lost.

A number of factors have to come into alignment, and we’re not quite there yet.

The first thing, obviously, is that consumers need smart phones. To a surprising extent, this has already happened — and faster than many of us might have expected.

The next is that manufacturers and retailers have to re-think the in-store experience. This hasn’t happened yet. In my opinion, CPG companies have not yet found their focus. I think this is at least in part because there has been a tremendous push to “get mobile fast”. Like so much in digital, progress here is a victim of a little too much FOMO and not quite enough getting down to basics and thinking it through.

Finding Focus

CPG marketers should ignore the hype and focus squarely on the fundamentals. “What do consumers need when they come to the store?” “How can mobile make that faster/easier/smarter/better for that consumer?” I’d also encourage everyone to ask “what’s working fine just the way it is?” There are doubtless many things about the shopping experience that consumers don’t want or need to be revolutionized. We should take care not to break what is already working well.

Let’s Go Shopping

Data alone won’t tell us what we need to know. (Has it ever?)

I see a significant need here for shopping ethnographies. CPG companies should tag along with experienced mobile shoppers and light mobile shoppers to understand the role that mobile plays – and especially to understand why consumers are not using their mobiles to accomplish a task in-store when they could.

There’s a lot to learn, and my guess is that somewhere the very best CPG marketers are already quietly doing some or all of this.

When Will We See The Shift?

In a recent Forrester report, analyst Tracy Stokes said,

“Mobile is the next big thing, but it is still next and not quite now. The number of articles about how mobile is on the rise for shopper marketing seems to increase weekly. But our research shows that while adoption of handsets and mobile activities are on the rise among consumers, shopper marketers are more wary about the opportunities without proven results or metrics with which to measure any results and thus have been slower to adopt mobile technologies.”

It’s easy — and wrong — to blame this wariness on a lack of interest, or a fear of the unknown. Executives in shopper marketing are tasked with generating real results, every day. My guess is that the wariness comes from a very good place: a sober instinct that what has been tried to date is bright and shiny but not terribly practical. I’m confident shopper marketers will get this right — and that when they do, the floodgates of money will open.

To learn more about mobile and shopper marketing, I suggest you dig into this Slideshare presentation from Leo Burnett. It’s smart, sober, and practical. I give them credit for not indulging in mindless industry cheerleading. It’s an honest appraisal of where things really are. Happy reading!

Photo credits (Creative Commons): Supermarket; iPhone

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Here’s the thing about people.

Human behavior is deeply-ingrained. We don’t change easily. Not even when other people really think we should. Not even when the rewards for changing are truly compelling.

Here’s the thing about people on their phones.

We  H A T E  being interrupted.

This isn’t likely to change — and that goes double if the incentive is the “privilege” to consume ads.

Who wouldn’t hate being interrupted while they’re on their phone? It’s rude. It disrupts your train of thought.  As much as we hated being interrupted on our old phones, we hate it even more when we’re on our smartphones. One of the reasons we’re willing to pay a hefty monthly bill is because our smartphones save us time. When our phones start costing us time, well, that’s enough to make us crazy.

But What About Mary Meeker’s Slide?

No disrespect meant to Ms. Meeeker. I look forward to her presentations every year. But, in this case her slide misses the point by a long shot.

It assumes that time spent on a mobile phone is like time spent with a magazine. In fact, in its dominant modality, time spent with a mobile is the exact opposite.

The primary modality of a magazine is that we use it to kill time:
this is why the main place you see magazines is in waiting rooms or on an airplane.

The primary modality of a smartphone is that we use it to SAVE time.
There is a huge difference, and if you plan to invest in mobile ad tech (or mobile advertising), you ignore user behavior at your own peril.

If you’re investing in mobile, by far the smartest bet is to bet on experiences that amplify existing behaviors. Instead of interrupting people, the real money is in helping people do what they’re trying to do. This leverages mobile’s dominant modality. It also makes you a nicer and smarter person.

Still, There’s Opportunity In The Secondary Mobile Modality

The funny thing about mobile is that in its dominant modality, we use it to save time. In its secondary modality, the goal is to kill time: in that mode we want to be entertained. Once you find out your flight has been delayed (again) and have checked alternatives online (again) and you realize you’re stuck at the airport (again) , it’s Angry Birds time.

Interrupting people’s entertainment is still tough to pull off, but at least it’s possible to do well. In-game banners promoting other games makes sense.

Better yet, I think there’s an emerging opportunity for advertisers or media owners to invent entirely new forms of time-killing media, tailored specifically for mobile. We should be thinking hard about what people need and want when they’re in this mode and work from there.

Smartphones deserve smarter advertising. The companies that get there first will reap the rewards.

Photo: Angry Phone Guy
(Creative Commons)

Unilever recently launched a remarkable TV campaign for Dove called “Dove Real Beauty Sketches.”

Its power is that it reveals a lot about how women think of themselves.

It also reveals a lot about how we think about digital marketing.

Watch the spot below.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Now, take this simple 5 question test.

1. How would this execution fare in digital A/B testing vs. a free offer?
2. What data, based on previous A/B testing, would have led to this execution?
3. Would this ad be deemed successful if it was based on CTR? Conversion?
4. What KPI would you optimize this ad for?
5. Are the things we “know” about digital marketing good for building brands, or not?

Extra credit questions:

1. As a digital ad, would this ever have made it out of your digital agency’s office without a call to action?
2. If it did, would you have had the courage to approve it?

Click here to view the embedded video.

You can download a PDF of the article here.

And while we’re on the subject…

If you’re a starry-eyed optimist, you may enjoy my glowing post about the promise of Social Television.

If you’re a gimlet-eyed cynic, you may enjoy my cautionary post about the peril of Social TV.

But maybe — just maybe — you’re a pragmatist.

In that case, I recommend you read both

A confession.

If 20-year-old high school dropout David Karp had shared his vision for Tumblr with me when he started coding it in 2006, I know what I would have done.

I would have tried to be kind and avuncular.

I would have tried to gently explain why having no business model was a bad idea.

I would have pointed out that allowing porn sites would probably doom any chances he’d have of being acquired.

He probably would have argued with me. He might have even gotten really angry with me. He was 20 years old, after all.

If he had screamed at me, I wouldn’t have argued back. I would’ve said, “Look, if you really believe in this thing I won’t tell you not to pursue it. All I’m saying is – no disrespect meant – you’d be wise to have a Plan B.”

Then – as he walked away – I would have rolled my eyes. Silly kid.

Fast-forward to 2013. I’m wrong on all counts. He’s a billionaire. (Well, not quite, but he’s a hell of a lot closer than most of us.)

So it goes.

Some say you need maniacal focus to become a billionaire. Perhaps Mr. Karp has taken this too literally.

Opportunity Meets Desperation?

This is an irrational deal forged in an irrational marketplace, made in hopes of persuading irrational people to assign irrational relevance to Yahoo.

As my friend Jonathan Yarmis said in his assessment of the deal,

“In the best of circumstances, acquisitions are hard and… Yahoo has never been in the best of circumstances, whether it was a dysfunctional board trying to prove it’s smarter than the last dysfunctional board, whether it’s a viper’s nest of competing fiefdoms, whether it’s a lack of a clear, consistent strategic vision…This reeks of opportunity meets desperation.”

Part of me is inclined to think that the estimable Mr. Yarmis is being too kind.

But… part of me is painfully aware that I may be as wrong about this as I would have been about Tumblr in the first place.

As idiotic as the deal may seem on the surface, the acquisition may:

- Make people more inclined to let Yahoo come and in pitch
- Help attract engineering talent who might not have considered Yahoo
- Give Yahoo a fresh story to tell in mobile and some alluring hope around native ads
- Persuade Wall Street to be more patient about the turnaround

The Strange Physics of Yahoo

The physics of running a company the size of Yahoo is a hell of a lot different than most normal businesses, in the same way that riding a tricycle isn’t quite the same as piloting the starship Enterprise. In today’s digital universe, Yahoo can find a billion dollars by digging in the couch for loose change. And Wall Street just might raise its stock price for the acquisition by enough to make the deal look like a relative bargain over time.

What seems like common sense to most of us might make no sense in that environment at all.

So, reluctantly, I have to admit that Tumblr may well be worth a billion dollars to Yahoo.

I still think it’s an idiotic deal. But that doesn’t mean it’s dumb.

You may not know a lot about Tagged today, but… you will. Where Facebook helps you stay in touch with people you already know,  Tagged helps you meet new people. That’s one of the reasons why Tagged has been able to grow profitably during the Facebook era.

According to Steve Sarner, Vice President Sales & Marketing at Tagged:

“I’ve watched and admired Tom’s work for years. In the past I’d seek out the conferences where he spoke to glean from his honest and sage insights. I am thrilled that he has entered into private consulting.  Now I can tap into his superb marketing creativity, real life experience and clear commonsense advice that’s as solid as any world class agency – all with a single consultant.”

I’m really excited to be working with Tagged. What is the next phase of social? What comes after Facebook? Tagged has some interesting answers.

If you’d like to know more about social discovery and why it’s the next phase of social media, watch this video.

And keep your eyes on Tagged, too. Great company.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Here’s the first print ad that I wrote for our new client, Rocket Fuel. The company is one of the most exciting companies in Silicon Valley (#22 in Forbes Most Promising Companies in America list.)

What Rocket Fuel does is amazing: they harness artificial intelligence and big data to transform digital media campaigns into self-optimizing engines that learn and adapt in real-time. CEO George John co-authored a seminal paper on relevance that became one of the top-ten most-cited papers in AI, won a National Science Foundation fellowship, and worked for NASA in the summers.

Thanks to everybody at Rocket Fuel — and especially to CMO Eric Porres — for being Cunniff Consulting’s first client. Advertising is easy — and exciting — to write when the product is this good.

At launch, the consulting practice consists of three offerings:

• Integrated Marketing Consulting
  
• Writing and Creative Direction In All Media
  
• Multi-Platform Ad Sales Consulting

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Integrated Marketing Consulting

If you’re quietly convinced your marketing integration isn’t working as well as it could, you’re not alone.

• Few execs can name 3 key actionable insights derived from online analyses in the past month*
• Fewer than 10% of CMOs say they have a “highly evolved” digital marketing strategy**
• 36% admit their digital model is a collection of tactical point solutions that are not well integrated**

Marketing has never been more complex, and new digital opportunities arise almost daily. But, the options expand faster than our budgets. As you evaluate paid, owned and earned media, where should you focus your efforts? How much should you invest in each? How can you harness the Feedback Loop? Which metrics make sense? Which “best practices” for digital are actually damaging for consumer brands and should be abandoned?

In workshops with your cross-functional internal and agency teams, I’ll work to understand your business. Then together, we will help focus the team’s efforts and arrive at a single, simple, practical strategy that makes your efforts across all media pack a significantly bigger punch.

When the consulting project is complete, you’ll have a powerful framework for integrated marketing that will make your planning and executing easier every year going forward.

No buzzwords, no jargon, no consultant-speak. You will be able to tell your CEO and board about it in a language that is rarely spoken today: plain English.

Have an assignment for me? Please click here.

Sources: McKinsey Quarterly, March 2010
; 2012 CMO Council Survey of 200+ global marketing executives

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Writing and Creative Direction In All Media

I can help with whatever you need, from package copy to global integrated campaigns in every medium. Category experience includes:

• Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG)
• Health and Beauty (HBA)
• Hair Color and Men’s Grooming
• E-Commerce
• Many others

There are dozens (hundreds? thousands? millions?) of talented freelance copywriters who’d be happy to work on your assignment. What makes me different?

• Experience and perspective, without arrogance. My job is to help you win.
• I don’t need more awards. But I’m happy to help you win them if you like.
• Delivery on-time and on-budget. No angst, no drama.
• I work fast and interact comfortably at any level, including the C-suite.
• I’m fun to work with. I have a sense of humor about life, and about myself.

Have an assignment for me? Please click here.

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Multi-Platform Ad Sales Consulting

If you’re a multi-platform media company that wants to improve your advertising pitch to clients, I can help.

I’ve seen pitches from both the agency and marketer side and know what gets said after the ad sales people have left the room.  I’ve been around digital since the very beginning and am expert in translating from tech jargon to the language that buyers speak. I can help you make the best pitch for each platform you offer — and help you position the complete multi-platform offering as a must-buy

Have an assignment for me? Please click here.

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Photo Credits: Paulobar, Mykl Roventine, qisur (Creative Commons), NBC Universal